Predictions in all categories are listed in the likelihood I believe they have for a nomination
Picture
Let's start off with the deadlock guarantees:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
The category can have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. Since they started that practice for the 84th Awards there have always been either 8 or 9 nominees. Because of the preferential voting system the Academy uses in this category, it is very difficult to wind up with 10 nominees.
My next three are very safe bets:
Get Out
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
After that it gets murkier. I'm going with a 9 nominee field this year rounded out by:
I, Tonya
The Florida Project
I'm going out on a limb with that last one. Darkest Hour is probably more likely to be nominated than either of my last two picks and The Big Sick has a strong following, but I just can't believe enough people will stand behind those mediocre films masquerading as great.
Director
There's a core four here that I think will be among the nominees:
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
The fifth spot is a tough call. Jordan Peele is a strong contender for Get Out and a safe bet and of course you can never count out Spielberg's work on The Post. But I'm going with the outside call:
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Actress
Again there's a core four:
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
My personal choice would be Annette Bening for her work in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool and Jessica Chastain has gotten a lot of attention for Molly's Game, but I'm giving the fifth spot to:
Meryl Streep - The Post
Actor
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Supporting Actress
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Only the first three on here are really locked in. Look for spoilers in the form of Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards or Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World.
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Wonder
The smart money seems to be on Wonder for the last spot, although Logan could sneak in there as could All the Money in the World.
Original Screenplay
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick
Animated Feature
Coco
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
If Mudbound gets the nomination here, Rachel Morrison will become the first woman ever nominated in this category (which is currently the only Oscar category never to have had a female nominee).
Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Victoria and Abdul
Film Editing
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
I, Tonya
Makeup & Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Wonder
Production Design
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
The Post
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water
Hans Zimmer - Dunkirk
Johnny Greenwood - Phantom Thread
Carter Burwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
John Williams - Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Original Song
"Remember Me" from Coco
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
"Evermore" from Beauty and the Beast
"The Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonder Woman
Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Baby Driver
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dunkirk
War for the Planet of the Apes
Okja
Documentary Feature
Last Men in Aleppo
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Jane
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
In the Fade
The Square
The Insult
Foxtrot
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